The brief sigh of global markets did not last the day. Brent crude rose sharply back to $100 a barrel on Thursday after Iran moved to close the Strait of Hormuz, sending a clear signal that the fragile Middle East standoff was breaking.
The benchmark was trading at $98.61 a barrel in early morning trading, up 4 percent, after falling 16 percent the previous day to below $91 on hopes that a two-week lull in the conflict could pave the way for lasting peace. That hope now seems badly misplaced.
Iran’s decision to close the strait, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil and gas passes, was in direct response to Israeli airstrikes targeting Hezbollah in Lebanon, which Tehran denounced as a violation of the ceasefire agreement. It is a move that strikes at the core of global energy security and will alarm policymakers and business leaders alike.
Sultan Al Jaber, the chief executive of Abu Dhabi’s oil company, Adnoc, was tight-lipped. He made it clear that Iran is using the waterway as a political tool instead of respecting freedom of movement, a very important distinction for businesses that depend on uninterrupted supply chains.
Nigel Green, chief executive of financial advisory group deVere, echoed those concerns, pointing out that a fifth of the world’s oil supply continues to flow through a corridor controlled by one of the belligerents. For SMEs already facing high energy costs, this is a very uncomfortable situation.
The stock markets showed a sad mood. The FTSE 100, which enjoyed its strongest single session since April 2025 with a 2.5 percent gain on Wednesday, returned 0.2 percent to trade at 10,585. On the continent, Germany’s DAX lost 1.4 percent and France’s CAC 40 fell 0.7 percent. Across Asia, Japan’s Nikkei, South Korea’s Kospi and China’s SSE Composite all closed lower.
Wall Street, which had rallied overnight with the S&P 500 up 2.5 percent and the Dow Jones gaining nearly 3 percent, was expected to open in the red.
President Trump weighed in on social media, confirming that American forces will remain active in the Gulf until an agreement is reached and respected, warning of dire consequences if not.
Meanwhile, Israel has stepped up its military campaign in Lebanon with its heaviest strikes since the conflict with Iran-backed Hezbollah fighters escalated last month, reportedly numbering more than 250.
For British businesses, particularly those in manufacturing, transport and any sector exposed to energy prices, the message is clear. The ceasefire may have provided a temporary respite, but the underlying instability in the Middle East, and its direct impact on the cost of doing business, is far from resolved. With Brent hovering just shy of triple figures, boardrooms across the country will be reassessing their security strategies and looking ahead to what could be a long period of uncertainty.
