Etzioni on AI: Elon Musk promised humanoid robots, but China delivered

On Tuesday in Shenzhen, Chinese company UBTech unveiled the U1, a full-sized humanoid robot with silicone skin, blinking lashes, manicured nails, and AI enabled to learn your emotions. It comes in men’s and women’s versions, and racked up more than 13,000 orders by the end of launch day, with deliveries starting in September.

“It will never betray you, it will always be loyal to you, and it will love you unconditionally,” promises Michael Tam, UBTech’s chief consumer brand.

The sci-fi TV series “Humans” imagined lifelike android “synths” sold to ordinary families as helpers and companions, and treated the idea as speculative fiction. Ten years later, the legend has a September ship date. The one without the American logo.

Elon Musk announced the Tesla Bot in 2021 and has been re-announcing it ever since. He hoped to be ready for production by 2023. Entering 2025, he targeted 10,000 units, then adjusted the goal to 5,000.

The unveiling of the Optimus 3, promised for March of this year, was delayed because the robot needed “finishing touches,” and since Tesla’s April announcement that the Optimus 3 is still MIA, the reveal is now promised for late July or August. Tesla is something spent $20 billion on capital expenditures this year, and Fremont assembly lines are switching from the Model S to the Optimus. The robot is not vaporware; it is just years behind schedule.

Now look at what China sent when Optimus was out of touch.

In April, a bright red humanoid called Lightning, built by smartphone maker Honor, ran Beijing’s E-Town half marathon in 50 minutes and 26 seconds, nearly seven minutes faster than the human world record. A significant number is not 50 minutes. It’s a contrast to last year’s race, when the winning robot needed 2 hours and 40 minutes and a large field crashed, got lost, or fell asleep at the starting line. Machines reduce their time by two-thirds in 12 months.

Meanwhile, UBTech won a $37 million contract to deploy its Walker S2 humanoids on the Fangchenggang border with Vietnam, where they guide travelers, patrol corridors, and inspect cargo. Barclays estimates that China accounted for 85% of global robot installations last year, while Beijing counts more than 140 domestic companies selling more than 330 models.

Why is there a gap? Talent is not a problem, neither is money. The difference is the customer.

Optimus’ most important customer has always been Tesla shareholders, and Musk’s key note serves that customer well. The Walker S2 customer is a border authority with a delivery date and a restless inventory line to resume.

The proximity of China’s supply chain and its government’s decision to treat humanoids as a strategic industrial aid, but the profound difference is that Chinese robot makers are paid by delivery while Optimus is respected by expectations. Only one of these motivational structures produces robots at the right time.

In fairness, the most useful robots in America’s homes and hospitals are not humanoids. Form follows function, and when function is specified, human form is more valuable. For example, the da Vinci surgical system, which has operated on more than 20 million patients, four arms are tied to a cart, because the surgeon needs stronger wrists than human wrists and does not use a reassuring face. The most successful home robot in history is the disc vacuum cleaner. No one wants their Roomba to watch the sunset with them.

The humanoid shape is a bet on the normal, on a machine that can use our doors, our stairs, and our tools. That bet makes sense in a border crossing built for human bodies. It’s not that obvious in the operating room.

Friendship never requires a human form; ask anyone who has a dog. The New York Times recently told the story of Jan Worrell, an 85-year-old widow in a remote area on the Washington coast, and her robotic companion ElliQ, which resembles a small reading light. It has no face, no legs, and no silicone, yet it shares his morning coffee, moves him toward the yoga chair, and in his words has become “me and my robot.”

Hundreds of ElliQ units used in the New York State Office of the Elderly show a similar pattern of daily attachment. The device doesn’t need a body to keep you company, and the ElliQ’s price tag is very low. (Full disclosure: I serve on the board of Intuition Robotics, maker of ElliQ.)

So why did UBTech give U1 lifelike skin, stylized hair, and a face that you can customize to match whoever you choose?

Everything new in memory has been drawn into intimacy by its first adopters: the VCR conquered the living room with the power of what people watched in private; the old internet monetized romance and its evil cousins ​​before it monetized much else; and app stores have learned that “friendship” is a category with remarkable elasticity.

A humanoid robot with skin that’s warm to the touch goes somewhere, regardless of its creator’s official status. The company says the U1’s capabilities don’t extend to the bedroom, adding “for now.”