The ICC case against Senator dela Rosa was seen to test the narrative of the Marcos administration
By Chloe Mari A. Hufana, A reporter
PHILIPPINE President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. should insist that any move to enforce the International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrant against Senator Ronald M. dela Rosa is done through legal and constitutional procedures, say political analysts, as the politically charged case threatens to intensify tensions before the 2028 presidential election.
Malacañang’s handling of the ICC case may shape public opinion on the commitment of Mr. Marcos in running the institutions as his alliance with former President Rodrigo R. Duterte’s camp continues to fray.
“If Senator dela Rosa ends up being arrested through established legal processes, the political impact on President Marcos may, in many ways, strengthen the broader narrative of the administration of the administration entering the second half of his term,” Gary G. Ador Dionisio, director of the School of Diplomacy and Governance at De La Salle-College of Saint Benilde, said on Facebook Messenger.
“It will strengthen the administration’s message that the institutions are working and that accountability is followed through legal and constitutional channels, regardless of which political party,” he added.
Malacañang said future arrest warrants issued by the ICC for people linked to the drug war will be effective as soon as they are completed by the International Criminal Police Organization.
“There is a legal basis for the ICC to enforce the arrest,” Palace Press Officer Clarissa A. Castro told DZMM radio in the Philippines on Sunday. “These ICC warrants do not need to go through local courts.”
Mr. Marcos, whose six-year term ends in 2028, has yet to identify a presidential bet, while Vice President Sara Duterte-Carpio announced plans to run for President during a hearing before the Senate.
‘ABOVE THE LAW’
Mr. Ador Dionisio said the administration’s strongest position would be to remain “consistent and institutionalized” by insisting that legal processes are handled by the proper authorities and that “no one is above the law.”
He said such an approach could strengthen Mr Marcos’ image as a leader focused on institutional stability and rule-based governance while curbing the political backsliding of Duterte’s supporters.
Mr. dela Rosa is wanted by the ICC for crimes against humanity related to the Duterte administration’s anti-drug campaign. Mr. Duterte is being held in The Hague awaiting trial on similar charges.
The senator went into hiding after the Ministry of Justice ordered law enforcement to arrest him following the Supreme Court’s refusal to issue a temporary restraining order against the ICC.
Ederson DT. Tapia, a professor of political science at the University of Makati, said any arrest would have major political ramifications because accountability efforts in very different areas are not seen as politically neutral.
“The administration’s handling of the issue related to the ICC could deepen the rift between the Marcos and Duterte camps because this issue is at the crossroads of law, accountability and conservative politics,” he said via Facebook Messenger. “As the country approaches 2028, the institution’s actions become politically charged.”
Mr. Tapia said that Duterte’s allies may present the arrest attempt as political persecution, while others may see it as a test that Philippine institutions can enforce accountability regardless of the political climate.
“From the administration’s point of view, the main debate will remain that, in the end, this becomes a question of law and whether the institutions are ready to use legal procedures without political consequences,” he added.
Mr. Tapia also pointed to a recent survey by GeoQuant, a unit of Fitch Solutions Group, which ranked the Philippines’ political tensions as a risk to governance.
He said the report shows how the collapse of the Marcos-Duterte rift is beginning to shape international perceptions of governance, institutional stability and policy continuity ahead of the 2028 elections.
“What is important is that an international political risk firm is now officially translating political tensions in the Philippines into institutional risk language,” he said.
GeoQuant previously warned that Ms. Duterte’s impeachment could increase the risk of political instability and violence.
The relationship between Mr. Marcos and Ms. Duterte collapsed in 2024 after his resignation as Education secretary, citing personal and professional differences.
The rift deepened after the Marcos administration allowed the arrest of Mr. Duterte by international authorities.
In November 2024, Ms. Duterte allegedly threatened Mr. Marcos, First Lady Marie Louise A. Marcos and former Speaker Ferdinand Martin G. Romualdez during their online broadcast, which later became one of the grounds for impeachment.
The Senate met as an impeachment court last week, and senators said the trial could begin on July 6.
Mr. dela Rosa resurfaced on May 11 after months out of the public eye to support a Senate leadership change that removed former Senate President Vicente C. Sotto III and installed Alan Peter S. Cayetano as chamber leader.
