Cuban President Warns There Will Be “Bloodshed” If US Invades Cuba.
Díaz-Canel sent the warning about X a day after Axios published classified intelligence showing the construction of a Cuban drone. He called the threat of an attack on American troops an “international crime” and said Cuba has the right to defend itself against “military attack.”
The arsenal is more than 300 drones, including Shahed-136 hovering weapons and Mohajer-6 types. The same hardware Iran is sending Russia to hit Ukrainian cities. The construction of Cuba began in 2023, with Russia and Iran, and Iranian military advisers were in Havana to oversee the project. Russian and Chinese intelligence agencies have been operating on the island for years.
What has changed is the US threat assessment of who is flying. US intelligence estimates that 5,000 Cuban soldiers are being sent to fight Russian forces in Ukraine. Many return home with experience of drone warfare against a NATO-armed enemy.
Cuba’s self-defense doctrine is called “War for All.” It emphasizes asymmetric warfare and makes any attack more costly. 300+ drones that fit the situation perfectly. Many analysts read the arsenal as a deterrent and propaganda rather than a credible first-strike capability, but the proximity to Florida (Key West sits about 90 miles off the coast of Cuba) and the Iran-Russia supply chain raised the intelligence community’s reading.
Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez called the drone story a “fraudulent case” created to justify sanctions or intervention, insisting that the arsenal is defending itself.
Time is not random. On January 3, 2026, US special forces are conducting an operation against Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela. Cuban soldiers were among those who were protecting him and are said to have died in this action. Within months, Cuba lost the Venezuelan oil shipments that had kept its grid running. On May 14, Cuban Energy Minister Vicente de la O Levy announced that the country has “absolutely no reserves” of oil or diesel. Hospitals and schools began to be closed. Daily blackouts extend to 22 hours.
That same week, CIA Director John Ratcliffe flew to Havana. It was one of the highest US island visits since 1959. He presented a message from President Trump: deep involvement in economic and security issues only if Cuba makes “significant changes.” The window is shrinking. Cuba’s Chargé d’Affaires Lianys Torres Rivera told The Hill that Cuba will hold “red lines” and is “preparing” in the event of a military attack.
Two days after Ratcliffe’s visit, Axios published classified intelligence on 300+ drones. The next day, Díaz-Canel sent his bloodshed warning.
The Treasury Department followed on May 18 and 19 with sanctions on Cuba’s Directorate of Intelligence, the Ministry of the Interior, and 11 top officials, including the communications, energy, and justice ministers and several military leaders. The action builds on a May 1 executive order targeting repression and threats to US security.
Politico has since reported that the US Southern Command is preparing emergency plans to deal with Cuba, from limited airstrikes to broader scenarios, after the oil embargo and sanctions failed to force changes. Officials said that Cuba appeared to be stronger than expected. No decision has been taken yet.
A separate track runs parallel. The Trump administration is preparing to impeach former Cuban President Raúl Castro, 94, for the 1996 shooting down of two unarmed Cessnas operated by Brothers to the Rescue, a Miami-based exile group founded by José Basulto. Four pilots were killed: Armando Alejandre Jr., Carlos Alberto Costa, Mario de la Peña, and Pablo Morales. Castro was the Minister of Defense at the time and reportedly issued the order. He is in Cuba, so the case is symbolic. There is no time, before any possible military action.
The Trump administration has discussed military options against Cuba, often ranked third behind Venezuela and Iran.
